Coronavirus and Our RV Travel Plans

There is so much in the current news about the latest Coronavirus and most of it is probably the normal hype that is associated with these health issues. I’ve heard a wide variation as to how people are going to prepare and change their behavior during this time. As we are actively making our spring/summer/fall RV travel plans, I thought it would be prudent to do a little research and then make a decision if we need to modify our plans.

What is the Coronavirus (COVID-19)?

Here is a good description from the World Health Organization (WHO):

Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.

Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people. Detailed investigations found that SARS-CoV was transmitted from civet cats to humans and MERS-CoV from dromedary camels to humans. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans.

How Contagious Is It?

From the CDC, as they are still learning on how it is spread:

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Can someone spread the virus without being sick?
People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest). Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

The CDC does not know the exact level of contagiousness, but one of the R0 (R-zero) estimates is 2.6. That is, if 1 person is infected, he spreads it to 2.6 people within the 10 day cycle. Then after 20 days, these new 3.6 people spread it to 2.6 more bringing the total to 9.4 and then it grows to 24. You get the idea.

The H1N1 flu outbreak was about 1.5 for a comparison. So the Coronavirus is quite contagious.

Symptoms and Prevention of COVID-19

From the WHO: Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death.

Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

We have all seen the news and urging to wash hands thoroughly and often. Never touch your face. Stay away from coughing and sneezing folks. Avoid large crowds of people. Postpone air and cruise travel. And to stay home for two weeks if you get sick.

Severity

I read all kinds of estimates online, but the John Hopkins data is currently showing a 3.4% death rate that is highly weighted to the China cases. From the website below, they show 3,460 deaths and 101,797 cases.

I have been checking this website daily to see for myself the number of cases, worldwide and the US.
https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/global-cases-covid-19/

And then there is all the talk about the regular flu kills far more people each year. Yes, that is true because the flu infects 10 to 45 million people per year. That is very widespread! Even at .5% death rate that would be about a quarter of a million people worse case.

So What Impact On Our 2020 Travel Plans?

What I learned from this research is that only a small number of cases are in the US. But, that the current cases could spread very quickly if people do not self quarantine. The people more at risk are the ones with some compromised immune system and people over 70 years old. We are not in that group yet, but not that far away.

We have made plans to travel from our Florida winter home to Virginia in May, Indiana in June, and Michigan in July. We currently plan to avoid heavy populated areas. Do more rural park hiking and seek out bird sanctuaries and the like. Probably less going out to eat at crowded restaurants. Just some common sense stuff.

All the while to continue monitoring the situation. We have also stocked up on two weeks worth of food and supplies for, God forbid, one or both of us becomes sick. If we do get sick, will just stay around the RV for the two weeks.

If the number of cases were to greatly increase in the US, we would probably take a real hard look at our summer travel plans and possibly just hunker down at some remote base to park the RV. But, I do think that is highly unlikely, but it is good to have thought through a worst case plan.

One of the good things about being a full-time RVer is that our home is on wheels. If things got bad in one area, we would just move to another location. I fully expect that the number of cases will continue to increase for some time, then run its course and have a sharp decline, just like the annual flu cycle. But, I could be wrong. Maybe I’ll watch a good zombie movie tonight.